2018-07-09
现在是科技发展的黄金时代，生活在这个时代的公民非常幸福。每家公司都在朝软件公司转型，想方设法地提升自己。软件正在推动数字化转型，并将使智能企业和新的工作方式成为可能。
在接下来的十年里，高速高可靠性的互联网上将会有50亿互联用户。届时，将会有一万亿台机器联网，冯�诺依曼计算机架构（美籍匈牙利科学家冯�诺依曼最新提出程序存储的思想，并成功将其运用在计算机的设计之中，根据这一原理制造的计算机被称为冯�诺依曼结构计算机）将被量子计算所取代（进入Q2K和Qubit时代）。
在接下来的五年里，随着规则驱动的白领工作被软件或机器所取代，全球将增加1000万名程序员。我们都需要实现自动化来解放最优秀的人才。
实现自动化的手段是人工智能（AI）。通过极端的自动化、极端的互联和极端的计算，我们将应用算法来挖掘我们存储的所有数据、流程和行为。这将给我们提供更好的业务洞察力、实时决策能力和规划能力。
人工智能的前提是自主性。现在是接受人工智能的时候了，请清点你的主流机器和数据，并为你的企业创建关键算法。
除了机器的变化之外，人类的生活也会出现很大的变化。医疗进步正在延长寿命。大数据将揭开治愈癌症的方法，纳米技术将改变药物输送和靶向治疗， 3D打印将降低假肢价格。不难想象，人类的预期寿命可能会翻番到150岁。
在劳动力、管理劳动力的人群以及工作性质的变化方面，未来十年对它们影响最大的将会是Z一代进入劳动力市场。（译者注：Generation Z，意指在1990年代中叶至2000年后出生的人。他们又被称为网络世代、互联网世代，统指受到互联网、即时通讯、短讯、MP3、智能手机和平板电脑等科技产物影响很大的一代人。）
2018年的头条新闻将关注人工智能、自动驾驶车辆和无人机、加密货币、物联网、安全以及云端和边缘设备。也许将会有重大的医学突破来解决遗传性疾病。对我而言，2018年将会出现塑造智能企业的技术和趋势。
在AlphaGo战胜李世石的围棋大战中，人工智能技术（如模式识别和决策制定）发挥了重要作用。然而，AlphaGo展示出的最突破性的技术是强化学习，这是一种受奖励驱动产生某种行为的机制。
基于强化学习的算法已经实现。2018年，这些算法将会应用于自动驾驶车辆和工厂车间的机器人身上。在接下来的一年里，各行业对人工智能的兴趣都会增长。到2020年，人工智能市场将增长到470亿美元。
但是，这些投资将如何为企业带来回报呢？配备了人工智能和认知系统、大数据分析和机器学习技术后，由洞察力驱动的智能企业将会超越竞争对手。更好的数据意味着更好的算法，更好的算法又将意味着更好的数据，如此往复。当使用AI系统收集和处理数据时，我们将会更加高效。
智能企业将利用敏捷开发在云中构建应用程序，自动化地执行流程和琐碎任务以提高效率，并探索数据湖以获得更深入的洞察力和更好的决策。
2017年，由比特币引领的加密货币强势登场，如今已经有超过1100种加密货币。这些点对点公司不介入传统的金融机构（不需支付与金融交易有关的任何费用或摩擦成本），正在获得消费者、零售商和投资者的青睐。
2017年3月3日，比特币交易价格超过黄金，达到1290美元——这说明闪光的不一定都是黄金。越来越多的企业将加密货币作为合法货币，其中包括日本26万个新的零售商，他们计划将比特币作为支付货币。
加密货币最重要的创新之一是它使用区块链技术。区块链的应用正在使整个行业发生革命性的变化，但其潜力远不止于改变我们交易和管理财富的方式。通过链接一系列不可改变的记录或“块”，区块链可以创建更加透明和安全的系统。
区块链的应用将是多方面的——从我们的交易方式到更新护照、投票、租车、纳税，甚至自我识别的方式。2018年将是区块链创业公司崛起的一年，特别是在安全和加密领域。
物联网设备正在推动云的极限，创造云计算和边缘计算融合的新计算范式。
作为物联网的“大脑”，边缘计算使处理能力更接近数据源。在这个新范式中，并不是所有的数据都是平等的。只有值得保留的设备数据才会被发送到云端。这降低了处理和存储物联网相关数据的成本。
时间敏感的数据可以由设备本身处理，从而缩短响应时间，同时减少网络延迟。这比单独使用云（在这种情况下，由于其瞬间延迟，周转时间可能会很慢）的效率要高得多。
随着需要立即或高容量数据处理的设备不断增加，边缘计算将推动云端走向场外，成为一种支撑技术。云计算和边缘计算将提供灵活性和数据存储，同时提供我们所需的基础设施，以支持不断扩大的物联网领域。
物联网正在创建一个巨大的全球设备和机器网络，这些设备和机器彼此互联，能够通信和交换数据。到2020年，将有数十亿台设备互联，市场价值达到14.4万亿美元。
虽然我们可能不会感受到物联网的直接影响，但其潜在影响是巨大的。与物联网有关的生物技术的进步将把医疗提升到一个新的水平，实现24小时监测、针对性治疗，甚至是自动给药。在所有物品都连接到物联网的智能城市中，自动驾驶车辆将会避免94％的车祸（由人为错误导致），每年可以拯救超过100万人的生命。
在智能企业中，物联网将端到端地连接全球供应链，实现普遍可见性、主动补充和预测性维护。通过物联网，由数据驱动的决策将成为所有行业和日常生活的标准。
网络空间已经成为一个新的战场，位、字节和僵尸网络是所选择的武器。这就创建了僵尸网络，这是一种由全球受感染设备组成的网络，黑客可以部署或出租给犯罪组织。目前存在一个非常强大的物联网僵尸网络IoT Reaper，足以使整个互联网瘫痪，这让人非常不安。
防火墙和其他传统安全措施无法阻止它。随着战场进入网络空间，我们需要新的工具来解决新的冲突。人工智能、量子计算和量子加密是很有希望的对策。
人工智能（以机器学习的形式）正用于监控网络和任何相关设备的异常情况并实时报告。量子计算每天可以筛选组织网络中的超过15万个威胁，以确定哪些事件是最危险的。量子加密可以确保安全通信。这些新兴技术正在重新定义网络安全。它们将成为我们防御复杂网络攻击的最佳防线。
有时候，未来技术和魔法无甚差别，担心纯属浪费精力。各个行业的企业都会越来越智能化，越来越Z一代。
数字化通过软件连接员工和消费者。在2018年，云、边缘点、机器、自动化、供应链、安全和客户的一切都将变得更加智能化。但最大的影响将是对劳动力的影响。随着婴儿潮一代退休，X一代将注意力转向知识转移，千禧一代成为占统治地位的人口，Z一代则正准备进入职场。（译者注：baby boomers，婴儿潮一代，二战后随之而来的生育大潮中出生的一代，通常是1945-1960年出生的人，这一批人赶上了上世纪70年代至90年代美国的经济繁荣，2008年爆发的金融危机让这一代许多人的投资打了水漂，他们恐怕要面临困窘的退休生活。Generation X，X一代，指出生于20世纪60年代中期至70年代末的一代人。这代人在20世纪80年代的经济衰退中长大，又经历21世纪初的互联网泡沫破灭，就在他们成家立业之际，又要面对全球金融危机和经济下滑。Millennials，千禧一代，1984-2000年出生，差不多伴随着个人电脑和互联网[万维网]一同成长。）
Z一代是工作领域最伟大的换代。他们把超互联提升到新的层面；他们对技术的运用使他们与其他世代截然不同。当他们进入劳动力队伍时，他们将带来他们的习惯、技术和文化。在零工经济中，经验胜过教育背景，市场可行性胜过市场营销，改变世界胜过发财致富。（译者注：gig economy，零工经济，是由工作量不多的自由职业者构成的经济领域，利用互联网和移动技术快速匹配供需方，主要包括群体工作和经应用程序接洽的按需工作两种形式。）
智能企业将基于这些信念和期望。
《2018 will be the year of AI and the intelligent enterprise》
Mark Barrenechea
January 08 2018,
It is an amazing time for technology and to be a citizen of the world. Every company is transforming into a software company and finding ways to disrupt themselves. Software is powering digital transformations and will enable the intelligent enterprise and a new way to work.
Over the next 10 years, there will be five billion connected users on one high-speed, highly reliable network—the Internet. Surpassing humans, one trillion machines will come online and the von Neumann computer architecture will be replaced with quantum computing (enter Q2K and the Qubit).
Over the next five years, the world will add 10 million more programmers as rules-driven white-collar work is replaced by software or machines. We will all need to automate ruthlessly to free up our best talent.
Informing all this automation is artificial intelligence (AI). With extreme automation, extreme connectivity, and extreme computing, we will apply algorithms to mine all the data, processes, and behavior that we store digitally. This will give us greater business insight, real-time decision making, and better planning to repurpose skills.
The mother of AI is autonomy. It is time to embrace AI, place your no-regret bets, mainstream machines and data, and build out key algorithms for your business.
Beyond these “silicon-based” changes, there will be massive “carbon-based” changes—humans. Medical advancements are extending life spans. Big data will uncover a cure for cancer, nanotechnology will change drug delivery and targeted therapy, and three-dimensional (3D) printing will make prosthetics affordable and liberating. It is not hard to conceive that life expectancy may almost double to 150 years of age.
When we consider the changing nature of the workforce, those who manage the workforce, and the changing nature of work itself, it becomes clear that the greatest impact of all in the next decade will be Generation Z entering the workforce.
The 2018 headlines will focus on AI, self-driving cars and drones, cybercurrencies, the Internet of Things, security, and the cloud and edge devices. Perhaps there will be a huge medical breakthrough that solves hereditary diseases. For me, it is all about the technologies and trends that will shape the future of the intelligent enterprise.
AI and the Intelligent Enterprise
AI skills, such as pattern recognition and decision making, played an important role in the much-talked about AlphaGo win against expert (human) player, Lee Sedol. The most ground-breaking technique AlphaGo demonstrated, however, was reinforcement learning, which is the tendency to produce an action that is followed by an increase in reward.
Algorithms based on reinforcement learning are already available. In 2018, they will be applied to autonomous vehicles on the road and robots on factory floors. Over the next year, interest in AI will grow across every industry. By 2020, the AI market will grow to $47 billion.
But how will these investments pay off for the enterprise? Equipped with AI and cognitive systems, big data analytics, and machine learning, the insights-driven intelligent enterprise will outpace its competition. Better data will mean better algorithms, and better algorithms will mean better data, and so on. We will become much more productive as we offload collecting and processing data to AI systems.
The intelligent enterprise will leverage agile development to build apps in the cloud, automate processes and menial tasks to optimize efficiency, and explore data lakes for sophisticated insights and better decision making.
Cybercurrencies and the Blockchain Revolution
In 2017, cryptocurrencies burst onto the scene—led by Bitcoin—and today, there are over 1,100 cryptocurrencies available. Because they disintermediate traditional financial institutions (and remove any fees or friction costs associated with financial transactions), these peer-to-peer companies are gaining traction with consumers, retailers, and investors.
On March 3, 2017, Bitcoin overtook gold, trading at $1,290 U.S—showing investors that all that glitters is not gold. A growing number of businesses are accepting cryptocurrencies as legitimate, including 260,000 new retailers in Japan who plan to accept bitcoins as payment.
One of the most significant innovations in cryptocurrency is its use of blockchain technology. Bitcoin’s application of it is revolutionizing the industry, but its potential lies far beyond changing the way we exchange and manage wealth. By linking a chain of records, or “blocks,” that can’t be altered, blockchain has the capacity to create more transparent and secure systems.
Its applications will be multifaceted—from the way we transact to the way we renew passports, vote, rent a car, pay taxes and even in terms of how we identify ourselves. 2018 will be the year of the blockchain startup, especially in areas of security and encryption.
Edge Computing and Devices
IoT-connected devices are pushing the limits of the cloud, creating a new computing paradigm where the cloud and edge computing meet.
As the “brain” behind the IoT, edge computing moves processing power closer to the source of data. In this new paradigm, not all data is equal. Only device data that is worth keeping is sent to the cloud. This reduces the costs associated with handling and storing growing volumes of IoT-related data.
Time-sensitive data can be processed by the device itself, allowing for quicker response times while reducing network latency. This is far more efficient than using the cloud alone where, with its split-second latency, turn-around time can be too slow.
As the number of devices requiring immediate or high-volume data processing continues to increase, edge computing will push the cloud to the sidelines, where it will act as a supporting technology. Together, the cloud and edge computing will offer the benefits of agility and savings, while providing the infrastructure we need to support the ever-expanding IoT universe.
Internet of Everything
The Internet of Things (IoT) is creating a giant, global network of devices and machines that are connected, communicating, and exchanging data. This market will see billions of devices connected by 2020 at a value of $14.4 trillion.
While we might not feel the immediate effects of the IoT, its potential impact is huge. Advances in IoT-connected biotechnology will take healthcare to the next level, with around-the-clock monitoring, targeted treatment, and even automated doses of medication. In smart cities, when everything is connected to the IoT grid, autonomous vehicles will eliminate 94 percent of car crashes (caused by human error) to save more than one million lives annually.
In the intelligent enterprise, the IoT will connect the global supply chain from end-to-end, enabling pervasive visibility, proactive replenishment, and predictive maintenance. With the IoT, data-driven decision making will become standard in all industries and in our daily lives.
The Next Generation of Cybersecurity
Cyberspace has emerged as a new battlefield where bits, bytes and botnets are the weapons of choice. This is creating the Internet of Botnets, which are global networks of compromised devices that hackers can deploy or rent out to criminal organizations. This is particularly unsettling given the fact that there is currently a botnet out there (dubbed the IoT Reaper) that is powerful enough to take down the entire Internet.
Firewalls and other traditional security measures do not cut it anymore. As the battlefield moves into cyberspace, new tools will be needed to address the changing nature of conflict. AI, quantum computing, and quantum cryptography are particularly promising countermeasures against cyberattacks.
AI (in the form of machine learning) is being used to monitor networks and any associated devices for anomalies and report deviations in real time. Quantum computing can sift through 150,000 daily threats in an organization’s network to identify which events are the riskiest. And quantum cryptography can ensure secure communications. These emerging technologies are redefining cybersecurity as we know it. Moving forward, they will be our best line of defense against sophisticated cyberattacks.
Sometimes, future technology and magic are indistinguishable, and worry is a waste of imagination. Industry by industry, enterprises are becoming more intelligent and more Gen Z.
Digital is connecting workers and consumers through software. In 2018, everything from the cloud, edge points, machines, automation, supply chains, security and customers will become more intelligent. But the greatest impact will be on the workforce. As Baby Boomers retire, Gen X turns its attention to knowledge transfer, and millennials are the dominant demographic, Gen Z is preparing to enter the workplace.
Gen Z represents the greatest generational shift the workplace has ever seen. They take hyper-connectivity to new levels; their use of technology sets them apart from other generations. As they enter the workforce, they will bring their habits, technology, and culture with them. In the gig economy, it is about experiences over education, market viable over marketing, and making a difference over making a dollar.
The intelligent enterprise will be based on their beliefs and expectations.
附件：
《2018 will be the year of AI and the intelligent enterprise》--原文.pdf
《2018 will be the year of AI and the intelligent enterprise》--译文.pdf
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